I feel like it used to be that a Presidential interview would be kind of boring. I certainly never really felt the need to pour through Obama’s interviews when he was in office. He tended to be consistent in his thinking. Bush was mostly the same. I never expected an interview with him to reveal any major bombshells. But with Donald Trump, we’re now in the era where an interview with the President is going to be full of bizarre off the cuff remarks, backtracks, wild claims, blatant fabrications, and crazy amounts of mud slinging. We’ve all seen Trump say a lot of crazy things. We’ve all read his remarks, but one of the most puzzling for me to read was in his recent Wall Street Journal interview. In it, Trump says, without any specific context, that he hasn’t implemented any tariffs. Like…ANY tariffs… His actual words are “Where do we have tariffs? We don’t have tariffs anywhere.” He then went on to say “We don’t even have tariffs. I’m using tariffs to negotiate.” So we don’t have them…but we’re using them to negotiate? And by the way, we do have Tariffs. We have them on all imported aluminum, steel, solar panels, washing machines, and almost half a trillion dollars of imports from China. I mean, is he going senile? Is he lying? Because he’s talked about how great tariffs are like a thousand times! Is this just gaslighting? What is going on?
The Trade War rhetoric and logic is damn childish. Seriously. It’s not enough that Donald Trump thinks that if he keeps trying to bully China with tariffs, that they’re just going to roll over. But the way he tries to sell this to everyone the American people is the way a 5 year old who just found out how to lie would. He keeps telling us how great all of this is going, while we watch the farmers and factory workers scramble to earn a living. He claims that China is attacking the farmers to make him look bad, as if he himself isn’t doing the same thing in bigger numbers. China is just doing it more strategically. And the difference is starting to show. Because while we’re pushing away our trading partners, they seem to be teaming up around us. But the thing is, Trump is forcing everyone to play his game, and his game is childish, which means no one comes away looking good. Tariffs are supposed to be a trade tool, not a weapon. And what should be an occasion that ends in the shaking of hands, is turning into a slapfight.
Political influencers and real life supervillains, the Koch Brothers, have taken a stand against Trump and his tariffs. Which makes sense. They have their grubby fingers in an alarming number of pies, and undoubtedly this is hitting their bottom line. I can’t imagine they ever pictured Trump’s ego would trump his business sense, but here we are, and I suppose they aren’t happy, and they are spending the money to prove it. Sponsoring farming lobbies and groups to take action, write open letters and in general making a big stink. They even sponsored an ad that featured a down to earth farmer removing his “Make America Great Again” hat, while the ad encouraged good hardworking folk to make their voices heard and remove these harmful tariffs and encourage free trade! I have to admit, I’m conflicted. The Koch brothers are all kinds of shady, and wield an undo amount of power and influence, but I can’t say I would be upset if the result ended in Trump backing off his trade war. The question becomes, which supervillain back down first?
I admittedly don’t know much about French President Emmanuel Macron, but he pulled a great line on Trump and even if It turns out he kicks babies for fun, I’ll still find myself having a bit of admiration for the guy. You see, by all accounts, while Trump was asking Macron to help convince the EU to the trading table as opposed to retaliatory tariffs against the US, Macron validated those actions by regurgitating the Art of the Deal back at Trump, which…I mean it’s the classiest, most elegant burn I could ever imagine. I don’t know that I could have ever thought to do that, and I have to wonder how Trump responded to that. Because I honestly don’t know how that confrontation ended, which is the real tragedy.
Donald Trump wants us all to know that he DEFINITELY has the upper hand in this whole trade mess. I mean, well respected economists say Trump’s trade policies harken back to policies undertaken in the 80s, namely with Japan, that grew the trade deficit by like 500% in 10 years, but Trump is totally confident, so we all should be too, right? When he says that every country is every day calling him to deal on trade, we can take that at face value, right? Though it has been pointed out that back in the 80s, when we were playing a similar game with Japan, and things got worse, that Japan largely played ball, unlike say China and Canada, who are definitely not, imposing large tariffs of their own. LISTEN! Clearly everything is under control! I mean, what reason can we possibly have to think that Donald Trump, master deal maker, doesn’t know what he’s doing?
So I’ve been reading articles about trade negotiations with China, and one of their big complaints is consistency. They’re frustrated because Donald Trump doesn’t seem to know what he wants out of a trade deal, and keeps moving the goal post, regardless of how willing they seem to be in dealing. And the more I think about that, the more I can put into context things like Trump declaring that illegal immigrants should be kicked out of the countries, no due process, despite that being unconstitutional to the extreme. Trump is basically a toddler. He has expectations that he’s going to be taken care of in every aspect of his life. If he wants something, like a toddler, he doesn’t take into consideration what it takes to get it, or even if it’s permissible. That doesn’t even cross his mind. He just knows that he wants something, and that the people around him, like a toddler’s understanding of his parents, are there to make that happen. But unlike actual parents, the people around Trump are ACTUALLY there to make his whims happen, which has meant skirting the law and the very foundations of what is allowed.
I will freely admit that I’m not an economics expert. Not even kind of. So when it comes to predictions regarding the economy, it’s my instinct to trust the analysis of people who understand that stuff. Now, when I say people who understand that stuff, I don’t mean self professed “deal makers”. That would be like listening to an actor’s political opinion: They might know what they’re talking about, but just as realistically, they’re trying to put on a show. So when the grand consensus by economists, both employed by the government and independent, seems to conclude that isolating the country from trading partners, imposing unnecessarily aggressive tariffs on them, and starting and escalating trade wars will ultimately kill more jobs and companies than help them, I’m inclined to believe them over the one loudmouth “Dealmaker” who is assuring everyone that he’s just playing hardball.
Even Trump has had to acknowledge that his ill advised Trade War with China is already worrying his base, namely the farmers, who supported him in wide numbers, and are being directly affected by this poor decision. The things he’s said are shifty at best and Tone Deaf at worst. He’s choosing to blame China for Tariffs even though China has more or less begged Trump not to move forward with actions that would force them to also take actions. Then he suggested that while it’s unfortunate for farmers, taking this hit, it will be ok, and that he’ll make sure that he “makes it up to them.” How? Because we can clearly see that he isn’t thinking steps ahead. He isn’t thinking about steps of now. He’s just…reacting…which is a scary place to be.
So, Trump is trying to sell his hasty tariff proclamation by playing the victim card again. I forgot that great businessmen whine about how they’re being taken advantage of on trade deals. But he says he won’t get rid of these tariffs unless a new, fairer NAFTA deal is put together. I dunno. I can’t seem to figure out what his idea of fair is. But I’m willing to bet the builders and construction companies who rely on Canadian imports for materials don’t think things are terribly fair at this point. Did you know that 40% of frame building lumber for Texas comes from Canada? Eddie Martin from the Tilson Housing Corp. does.
Mind the Exit 